What 2024 Taught Us About Holiday Retail

Last October, we published our first annual predictions for the holiday season in collaboration with pass_by, the AI-powered geospatial insights company for retailers. Together, we analyzed national trends and delved into some individual retail sectors. Now that we are past the holiday season, it’s time to evaluate how well we did on national predictions and what we can learn from shopping data to guide 2025 planning.

Calendar Shifts Impact Holiday Shopping Patterns

The unique idiosyncrasies of the Gregorian calendar significantly influenced the holiday shopping landscape between 2023 and 2024. In 2024, Black Friday occurred during NRF Calendar Week 43, while Christmas Day fell on a Wednesday in Week 47. Fiscal 2023 was a 53-week year, and Thanksgiving’s earlier date added complexity to year-over-year comparisons.

One key factor to consider: there were seven more holiday shopping days in 2023 than in 2024. This calendar anomaly alone altered shopping behavior, with more consumers leveraging aggressive Black Friday deals earlier in the season.

Looking ahead to 2025, the calendar will mirror 2024’s shopping day count, but Christmas Day’s shift to a Thursday is noteworthy. When Christmas falls on a Thursday, shopper activity typically extends into the weekend, with increased traffic the Friday after Christmas. By contrast, in 2024, Christmas fell mid-week, reducing the likelihood of extended shopping periods. The last time the calendar aligned this way was in 2014

Weather Wasn’t a Factor in 2024

Weather in the 2024 holiday season didn’t influence holiday shopping activity. December temperatures were within half a degree of average, and precipitation was similarly stable.

This lack of weather activity is unlike the prior few years when storms bookended Black Friday and Christmas Day in 2023, and several blizzards hit throughout December 2022.

As a result, shopping activity was more influenced by the fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day as compared to last year and the aggressive retailer discounting programs.

Promotions Drove In-Store Shopping Activity

Promotional activity significantly influenced shopping patterns. According to Adobe, discounts peaked on Cyber Monday (Dec. 2) and tapered off gradually in key categories. This trend correlated with shopper traffic, as in-store visits were more frequent from Black Friday through mid-December.

• Early Season Activity: From Black Friday to December 15th, 59% of holiday shoppers visited stores, averaging 3.4% daily.
• Late Season Activity: From December 16th through New Year’s Eve, only 41% of shoppers visited stores, averaging 3.1% daily.

This raises a critical question: would sustained aggressive promotions have bolstered late-season traffic?

Top 10 Results: Prediction vs. Reality

Finally, here are the top dates that we originally predicted and the actual results of shopper activity:

Our analysis of top shopping days revealed notable insights:

• Key Findings: Several Fridays emerged as high-traffic days, and Boxing Day (Dec. 26) experienced a drop-in activity compared to previous years. Perhaps due to the shrinking calendar and drop in discounts.
• Trend Watch: The prominence of Fridays warrants closer monitoring to determine if this is a one-time occurrence or a developing trend.

It’s important to note that overall, the top 10 shopping days accounted for 37.4% of all holiday shopping activity, aligning closely with historical norms.

Top 10 Results: Prediction vs. Reality

Finally, here are the top dates that we originally predicted and the actual results of shopper activity:

Our analysis of top shopping days revealed notable insights:

• Key Findings: Several Fridays emerged as high-traffic days, and Boxing Day (Dec. 26) experienced a drop-in activity compared to previous years. Perhaps due to the shrinking calendar and drop in discounts.

• Trend Watch: The prominence of Fridays warrants closer monitoring to determine if this is a one-time occurrence or a developing trend.

It’s important to note that overall, the top 10 shopping days accounted for 37.4% of all holiday shopping activity, aligning closely with historical norms.

Looking Ahead to 2025

The 2024 season can be summarized in one word: consistency. Stable weather, predictable promotional patterns, and shopper traffic aligned with retailer strategies. However, 2025 introduces a significant variable: Christmas Day’s alignment with a Thursday.

This shift is likely to elevate Boxing Day’s importance, as the long weekend creates more opportunities for shopping activity. Retailers should prioritize aligning inventory, staffing, and promotions with the top 10 shopping days, which consistently represent 35-40% of holiday activity. Ensuring the right merchandise and adequate support during these peak periods will be crucial to maximizing performance.

By understanding calendar impacts and leveraging these insights, retailers can better prepare for a successful 2025 holiday season.

If you’re looking to customize your approach to the shopper journey or gain a deeper understanding of your competitive landscape, we’re here to help. Reach out to us for tailored insights and strategies.

Brian is VP of Analytics at StrataVision, focusing on helping clients maximize their ROI by transforming desired outcomes into actionable use cases, leveraging data to provide insights into shopper and associate behavior.